Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.636030 2.797940 2.974555 3.183524 3.426802 3.704776 4.052148
2025-03-09 2.398555 2.611725 2.858282 3.171079 3.568002 4.072106 4.794767
2025-03-16 2.226691 2.462275 2.744845 3.120159 3.626304 4.323894 5.451836
2025-03-23 2.144226 2.403880 2.725778 3.172372 3.812695 4.777590 6.588854
2025-03-30 2.029406 2.292488 2.624737 3.097495 3.801050 4.924671 7.278677
2025-04-06 1.929393 2.191445 2.526879 3.013208 3.757885 5.004041 7.881235
2025-04-13 1.854229 2.116968 2.457623 2.960591 3.752915 5.144822 8.737463
2025-04-20 1.822105 2.095903 2.457617 3.006402 3.909668 5.628060 11.113268
2025-04-27 1.809580 2.099218 2.490186 3.102718 4.167072 6.421195 16.913019
2025-05-04 1.770144 2.063591 2.464730 3.105443 4.257169 6.880808 24.537749
2025-05-11 1.734429 2.031020 2.441174 3.108185 4.346948 7.388871 45.392014
2025-05-18 1.677746 1.967041 2.368374 3.024299 4.253742 7.340425 59.305712
2025-05-25 1.646480 1.938630 2.348457 3.030221 4.351402 7.959970 NaN
2025-06-01 1.614086 1.907364 2.322696 3.024285 4.424895 8.573637 NaN
2025-06-08 1.574217 1.863937 2.276377 2.979051 4.405744 8.844126 NaN
2025-06-15 1.559873 1.855995 2.283047 3.026408 4.603198 10.237080 NaN
2025-06-22 1.519404 1.809119 2.227719 2.958667 4.519350 10.222376 NaN
2025-06-29 1.479007 1.761275 2.169274 2.882176 4.406406 10.002609 NaN
2025-07-06 1.447274 1.725126 2.127763 2.834307 4.358584 10.134953 NaN
2025-07-13 1.437689 1.720636 2.135122 2.875989 4.538906 11.877031 NaN
2025-07-20 1.438226 1.730755 2.165686 2.963403 4.860791 15.864437 NaN
2025-07-27 1.420886 1.713928 2.152427 2.965871 4.952702 18.403994 NaN
2025-08-03 1.404411 1.697867 2.139694 2.968355 5.046273 21.913252 NaN